Thanksgiving Free Play - NFL

We have a free play in the NFL for Thanksgiving Day.  We're going to take the Under for the GB-Detroit game.  Watch the line (currently 56) and grab the Under if it looks like it is ticking down.  Otherwise, it appears like the total could rise a bit.  

Tuesday Free Pick - MLB 10/4/11

Detroit surprisingly, to some, is up 2 games to 1 against the Yankees.  We like the Under in this game -- due to the pressure involved in this game.  In addition, the total has edged up to 10 -- so we also like the line value.   

Tuesday Free Pick - MLB 9/13/11

Today, we like the OVER in the Detroit game.  Verlander is having a great year, and we don't want to get in the way of the Detroit steamroller, but we think there is value on the Over in today's game.  - jc

Thursday Free Pick - NFL 9/8/11

We're taking the UNDER in the NFL season opener.  The line has edged upwards -- giving us some line value.  We like the under with the Green Bay defense -- and a Saints offense that hasn't been the same since their Super Bowl.  

Wednesday Free Pick - MLB 9/7/11

We're taking the UNDER in the late game today: Seattle at Anaheim.  We like the under 9 (decent odd / key number in MLB) in this low-scoring season.  

Saturday Free Pick - MLB (3 in a row) 8/27/11

We're looking for three wins in a row.  We're taking the UNDER in the Verlander game today.  You can still grab under 7.5 -- right above the pseudo-key number of 7 in totals for baseball.   - cb

Tuesday Free Pick - MLB 8/23/11

Verlander got us on the winning side again -- and at decent odds.  Today, we're going with "ugly" pitchers -- with a total of 11 runs (!!) -- and we are taking the Cubs at home.  In baseball, we like high totals with our typical underdog plays because it adds to uncertainty in games.  We also like the line value in this play.  - cb & jc 

Saturday Free Pick - NHL 6/4/11

We're going with the over in the NHL today. The low-scoring Game One may have created some value -- unless it takes 59 minutes plus to score in this game! With the Over set at 5, we have a good safe "spot" at the 5. -jb & cb

Wednesday Free Pick - Grand Salami 4/6/11

Our winning streak ended yesterday (we were going for 6 in a row).  We're looking to stay hot with a pick in the Grand Salami.  I like this play because there appears to be an edge in the data I have studied.  This bias has helped me to pad my bankroll during the NHL season.  I believe that a similar approach will work in MLB -- and I am collecting the data.

Please visit my blog regularly for free picks -- and some of the sports betting biases ideas I am studying (and using!).

Today's free play of the day: Take the Over in  the NHL Grand Salami.  Over 44.5 in 8 games.

Sunday Free Pick - March Madness Play 3/27/11

We're looking to continue our hot streak.  Going for 3 in a row today -- and trying for 8 of our last 9 free picks for our plays of the day.

I am taking the UNDER in  Kansas-VCU game.  Some huge line movement there -- the total moved from 142 all the way to 147.5.  

Saturday Free Pick - NHL 3/26/11

After the streak ended on Thursday, we started a new winning streak with yesterday's play on New Orleans in the NBA. New Orleans was a good line value play, with the line opening at NO +3 and moving all the way to +6.5 at some books. They turned out to be an outright winner.

Today, I am going with the Under in the NHL big salami. It's a big lineup for the NHL, with 12 games on Saturday. On a big day like this, the law of averages seems to weigh the unders down for the cumulative day.

Monday Free Pick - NHL 2/7/11

After a busy Super Bowl weekend, it's back to business.  Some people I know think of me as a "grinder."  I believe that I have an edge, and I stick to strict money management, which may be boring to some, but works for me.

I don't like much today, so my free pick of the day is my old standby: the Over in the NHL Big Salami.  I already locked in Over 34.5 in the 6 NHL games.

Friday Free Pick - NHL 2/4/11

It's another light Friday for sports betting activity: sort of the calm before the storm of Super Bowl weekend.  College hoops has just a few games before a heavy Saturday -- and I don't see any values to "write home about" in the NBA.  We'll go with one of our favorite plays recently, the "Over" in the NHL "big salami."

We are tracking this play, and although our data sample size is fairly sparse, there seems to be a statistical edge in that a certain percentage of games result in a high-scoring score of say 6-4, making up for some small unders at, say 3-2.

I was able to get over 33.5 with 6 games.
 

Wednesday's Free Pick - NHL 2/2/11

After yesterday's NHL win, we'll stay with the NHL -- this time on the OVER in the big salami.  I've tracked the data -- and believe that there is statistical value on the over (surprisingly!).

Today's total is 33.5 - in 6 NHL games.

NHL Salami

A quick update on the Grand Salami totals play. I am starting to collect data; the data is still very sparse, but the Over for the Grand Salami still seems to be a good play. At some point, I will develop some guidelines for when the value isn't there (for instance, if the grand total is set way too high).

NHL Grand Salami -- Totals

I have been toying with this idea about NHL totals (total goals scored by both teams for that given day's NHL games). Many sportsbooks offer a line for total goals scored in the NHL for that day. Some books call this the "Grand Salami."

I originally thought that since much of the public generally leans to "overs" -- that it might be good to take "under" for the entire Grand Salami. I didn't have a source of historical data on this type of bet, so I started to collect data...

After just a short while, it appears that you can capture the statistical "tail" in some ways. In any given game, the current total of about 5.5 goals is a good over/under line for the total. However, there is a certain percentage of games that might be 8+ goal games (and even higher).

This seems like it can skew the results to the over side a bit (you can have a 10 goal game for instance at 6-4, but you can't have fewer than 1 goal in a game).

this play is also fun because you sort of have "action" on every NHL game that day... We'll keep an eye on this play...