Sunday Free Pick - NFL 11/6/11

We like Indy today +7 -- and if you can still get it -- the +7.5 is even better.  The Colts may be winless -- but with everyone hating them, there is good value on Indy plus the points.  As our friends say, definitely an "ugly play!"  (but that's how we find value...)

Sunday Free Pick - NFL 9/18/11

We like the big points on Carolina -- combined with the public betting on Green Bay like this is a done deal.  We'll take Carolina in a truly "ugly" play!

Monday Free Pick - MLB 8/8/11

Today, we are going with an ugly play -- but we are making use of the home bias -- and taking the O's at home against the CWS.  Line value also comes into play, so grab the value on the O's.  - jc

Saturday Free Pick - MLB 7/23/11

We are going with an "ugly play" by taking KC over TB. KC is at home -- and the "ugliness" of the last place "KC pick" has created line movement value -- with KC going from a very slight favorite to plus odds. - jc & cb

Wednesday Free Pick - MLB 7/20/11

I am taking SD & Harang and the line value -- on the road, visiting Florida and Nolasco. It looks ugly on paper, but the +157 odds is pretty juicy.

Tuesday Free Pick - MLB ("ugly" value) 7/5/11

Verlander has been red-hot this year, so we're going to take the contrarian route -- and go with LAA and Haren on the mound.  We like the home-field bias, combined with "ugly" value and public sentiment on Verlander.

Tuesday Free Pick - MLB ("ugly" value) 5/17/11

Yesterday's 19-run outburst by Cleveland over KC put an end to our winning streak (with a loss for our Grand Salami play).  This happens sometimes, but the weight of the Unders often lets us eke out wins with our MLB salami plays.

Today, we are going with the Mets & Niese -- at home against a hot Nolasco.  I don't love the pitching match-up -- but do believe that there is value based on Noly being red-hot and Niese, a solid pitcher, starting the season a little slowly ("ugly" value).  The Mets are at home and have been playing better as of late.

Tuesday Free Pick - MLB ("ugly" value) 4/19/11

We've cooled off a bit -- but will stick with our guns of being selective -- and seeking out value plays.  Today, we will take a quality young pitcher, 23 yr-old Kyle Drabek and Toronto over the heavy-hitting Yankees and aging veteran AJ Burnett.

Burnett is a deceiving 3-0 -- with an ERA of 4.67.  We'll go with youth over age -- and take an "ugly" pick.  The Yankees will be a good team this year, but they have been hot out of the gate and are over-valued.    

Tuesday Free Pick - 3/8/11

Let's try and grab a win with a big dog in college hoops.  At this time of the season, big underdogs will surprise and cover the spread more often than not.

Taking an ugly play in Depaul (currently +14.5 and hopefully more later) over U-Conn.  

Saturday Free Pick - Lucky 7 2/19/11

The streak continues...  Our blog's picks have won 6 in a row -- and we're going for a "lucky 7" today.

We're going with one of our "ugly plays" -- by taking Colorado +15.5 visiting Kansas in NCAA Hoops.  There's some decent value on this seemingly ugly pick -- and we're hoping for some additional line value if the public pushes the point spread up.

Sports Betting Tips

Some sports bettors make a casual bet "here and there" -- just for the fun of things -- and that's fine.  However, if you want to help your bankroll (which could be a fun thing!), below are some betting tips.  Over time, I will blog about additional thoughts on betting tips and value in the sports betting world.

• Selectivity: the "vig" is already difficult to beat.  Limit your bets so that you are not climbing upstream all of the time by paying -110 on excess games.  (Don't be mislead: most of us cannot achieve a 60% winning percentage -- and that -110 is a drag on results.)  
• Use good money management.  Here's a blog post on money management. 
• If possible, check various sportsbooks to get the best combination of point spread and (moneyline) odds.  (A low vig sportsbook and/or sports exchange can offer good "pricing.")
• Avoid the hottest and best teams -- and avoid the worst teams.  I use ATS records (especially Covers.com stats) to study this type of info.  Research has shown these are bad bets.
• Try to put "value" on your side by tending to "fade the public."  I like SportsInsights for this type of info.
• In addition, I try to grab additional value by focusing on big games, nationally televised games, and games where the media is harping on one side of the story.    
• I also like "line value" (where the line moves in the direction where you are receiving more points or better odds).  
• I like "decent points" in my plays, which often look like "ugly plays" -- because teams sometimes come through with "back door covers."  These wins ATS can help improve your winning percentage. 
• Syndicates and other groups with organized resources may use additional techniques to add value to their plays.  This is beyond the scope for many smaller bettors and handicappers, but the resulting line moves and other impacts -- could be useful:

1. Injuries and other breaking news: this will probably impact the betting lines -- but faster than most bettors can exploit.  Sometimes, the lines over-react (tip: perhaps fade).
2. Pricing models and other software: used to set a price. 

Saturday Free Pick - NCAA Hoops 2/12/11

With today's busy college basketball schedule, we're going with a pick in NCAA Hoops.  We like St. Louis, getting double-digit points, with public sentiment on Richmond, big-time.  There looks like there is some good value on the visiting dog here.

Our "ugly play" on the NHL Devils won last night.