NBA Finals - 2013

I like the Miami Heat for many reasons.  Although some are comparing two great players, Lebron James is in his prime -- and will most likely go down in history as one of the very all-time greats.  I believe that Lebron James will lead his team to another title.  Miami is hurting a bit, but the age of the Spurs makes up for this.

I like the Heat in 5 games, although I enjoyed the probabilities in this article:
http://offthedribble.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/06/06/keeping-score-key-statistics-favor-heat/

I would also take the Heat vs. the spread as I believe that there is value.

March Madness Finals (4/8/13)

I am taking Michigan plus the points in tonight's College Basketball final.  Michigan has played one of the toughest schedules in college basketball -- and has a dangerous 3-point FG percentage.  Several of my sources -- and I -- expect this game to be a tossup, so I love getting the dog plus four points.

One of the analysts that I follow, the "Who Will Win" authors have this as their prediction:

Based on our championship factors and season statistics, we developed a Monte Carlo simulator for college basketball, similar to the methodology we used for our football analyses.  The most frequently-occurring score was  Louisville 70, Michigan 69.

Link: http://whowillwinthebiggame.blogspot.com/2013/04/ncaa-mens-championship-game-2013.html

2012 NBA Finals

I like Miami in the NBA finals.  With Oklahoma City up one game to none (winning at home), there is also additional value on a futures/series play.

In Game 1, Miami led for much of the game, until OKC's big run at the end of the 3rd quarter.  Although OKC is favored, we like the value on Miami.  Miami's defense, experience in last year's finals -- to me -- makes them a better overall team.  We will see -- but I am on Miami!

Here's the "Who Will Win" analysis that I like:

http://offthedribble.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/12/keeping-score-reading-statistics-like-tea-leaves/





























   

2012 Super Bowl (Patriots - Giants)

My free play is on New England to cover the spread against the Giants.  I especially love this if you can get NE -2.5.  The key 3 number takes some excess value out of the picture, but I still love NE -3.  The Giants have come on strong -- but are less consistent than the Patriots.  I would take Brady over Eli Manning any day...

Here is some good coverage of the Super Bowl:

1. SportsInsights' Super Bowl blog summary.  I read all of the links in this post:   http://sportsinsights.com/blog/2012/02/weekend-sports-update-super-bowl/
2. Who Will Win: I love these sports psychology angles for a different edge.
3. Covers' Super Bowl coverage.

2012 NFL Conference Championships

In today's AFC & NFC Championship games, we like San Francisco and Baltimore to beat the spread -- and perhaps even for Baltimore to advance to the Super Bowl against SF.  New England is an interesting story; they have looked old and weaker earlier in the season, but then finished strongly -- but against an over-rated and generally weak schedule.  Thus, we like Baltimore a lot in the AFC game.

In the NFC game, we think it can potentially be a blowout -- for a strong 49er team with the top-ranked NFL defense -- against an over-achieving Giant team.  Here are some links to info we like:

http://whowillwinthebiggame.blogspot.com/2012/01/who-will-win-nfc-championship-game.html

http://sportsinsights.com/blog/2012/01/weekend-sports-update-16/

http://www.covers.com/articles/columns/articles.aspx?theArt=262219

BCS Game: #1 LSU vs. #2 Alabama

We like Alabama in the big game tonight. It will be interesting to see how the #1 defense (Alabama) does... but I like them! Also check out the Who Will Win analysis.

Wednesday Free Pick - MLB 10/19/11

Based on the "Who Will Win...?" analysis -- we like the Texas Rangers in the World Series -- and especially in Game 1 of the World Series, where the Ranger are getting plus moneyline odds while visiting St. Louis.

Last year these factors correctly predicted that the San Francisco Giants would beat the Texas Rangers. So how do the Cardinals and Rangers fare in analyzing their championship characteristics?

Pitching Leadership

In baseball, top starting pitchers are a good indicator of success during baseball’s playoff series. In particular, the finalist with the better top of the rotation, measured by total wins by its top two pitchers, has won 70 percent of the World Series over the past 22 years (not including 1994, when there was no postseason). 

Full article at NY Times:

http://bats.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/10/19/which-world-series-team-has-winning-traits/

Book's Blog:

http://whowillwinthebiggame.blogspot.com/

Sunday Free Pick - MLB 10/9/11

On an NFL Sunday, we are going with a baseball pick.

We LOVE the value on the Cardinals today. We like the juicy moneyline odds on the visiting Card... Also, we like this analysis from the "Who Will Win" authors.

Overall, the factors lean to the Cardinals with their big team batting average. 

Tuesday Free Pick - NBA Finals 5/31/11

We're looking to stay on the winning side with a play on Game One of the NBA Finals. We like the analysis on the "Who Will Win the Big Game?" blog (which point to Miami) -- and our models and methods also like Miami in the first game of the series.

Also -- whenever the playoffs heat up -- there's also good coverage on some of our favorite sites.

• Covers has a good article on the Miami-Dallas match-up -- and some of the betting trends point to Dallas.

• SportsInsights currently has betting leaning towards Dallas, so the contrarian in me likes Miami that much more.

I took Miami to win the series as well, because the numbers are not very steep. - jc & cb

Monday Free Pick - March Madness 4/4/11

We picked up another win yesterday, in MLB.  

With the big NCAA March Madness finals today -- we are going with Connecticut.  People seem to like the Butler "Cinderella story" and their back-to-back finals -- but I like ALL of the factors on CT's side...  Coaching, leadership, biggest star on the court (Walker!).   Give the points -- (and based on public sentiment, maybe the spread will continue to shrink).  

Saturday Free Pick - March Madness 4/2/11

We have been staying hot -- and are going for three wins in a row.  Our blog's free picks have gone 10-3 in our last 13 plays-of-the-day.  We're going with a March Madness play today.

We like Butler -- based on their experience, several stats, and VCU's recent hot play (which we believe could be creating some value).  Here is some interesting analysis on the Final Four.

Baseball Betting Biases & Tips

Opening Day has arrived.  Here are some sources of info that I follow regularly.

• Covers always has great sports betting coverage, and here's an article that has some basic tips (follow streaks, pay attention to who is playing/out of lineup, bullpens, money management).
• SportsInsights just came out with an update to their regular series of articles on "betting against the public."  Some good academic research, info and guidelines (fade public, betting % guidelines, home teams appear undervalued).    
• I also like this spring training analysis that was published in the NY Times from "Who Will Win?" -- and will use it for potential value early in the season.  

Please visit my blog regularly for free plays of the day and betting tips that can help with your sports handicapping.  

NCAA Bracket Info

Here is some bracket information I have been looking at when completing my brackets. Have fun!

• This is a nice calculator from BracketScience. Some features are available for members only, but there's still some good info.
• Here are some probabilities generated by that U-Chicago pool I mentioned. The financial marketplace approach to the pool resulted in interesting and reasonable probabilities that can help differentiate your own brackets!!
• Some standouts from those probabilities:
• Florida State, a #10 seed = 55.6% to advance to next round
• Missouri, #11 = 59.8%
• Marquette #11 = 51.0%
• Old Dominion #9 = 57.8%
• Utah St #12 = 52.3%
• Michigan St #10 = 54.1%
• This NY Times article also shows some good probabilities.

A Wealth of Super Bowl Betting Info & Free Pick 2/6/11

Here is some useful information I have gathered on the Super Bowl.  FWIW, I like the Steelers -- and will lean to the Under.  Actually, with the over/under being pushed up (now up to 45 at most books), I like the Under even more now.  Here are some links I have looked at:

• I love the coverage by Covers.com.  Check this out, their Super Bowl "infographs", or this, on match-ups, etc.  
• Here's a list of SportsInsights' goodies, articles, summary of systems, etc.  Overall, they lean to the Steelers.  They show betting to be evenly split -- with the line slowly moving towards Green Bay.  
• For big games in the playoffs, I like this site: Who Will Win the Big Game, which is often quoted by the New York Times.  They use some different angles including sports psychology to make some interesting picks -- and have done well.  They sometimes pick underdogs, as they do this year, going with the Steelers -- and have compiled a 20-10 record on their book's blog (including picking the Saints last year).

Some observations:

• Betting is split about 50/50 on this one, but with the line edging slightly to GB.  The Super Bowl is a different animal, but "bigger money" seems to be slightly on GB.
• I believe that "hot money" is following GB, who had the blowout win over Atlanta in the playoffs.  Numbers show that recent performance may not necessarily help ATS.  If anything, it could lead to value on Pittsburgh.
• Some people note that Pittsburgh has the better record, and is the #2 seed vs. the Packers # 6 seed.
• Based on all of the factors I have studied, I believe that there is good value on Pittsburgh.  I would actually favor the Steelers by a few points, so getting Pitts +3 is solid value.
• BTW - based on some of these stats, I will also take a chance at some other props with Pitts winning big.

I hope this wealth of information brings us Super Bowl riches as well.  

2011 BCS Championship

I like Oregon for a few reasons. Attached are some links that I like...

• Based on some book's research on sports psychology. Their results have been good. http://whowillwinthebiggame.blogspot.com/2011/01/who-will-win-college-football.html
• Also, they got a press mention:
• http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/6162234/who_will_win_the_bcs_championship_1.html?cat=14
• The betting public generally favors Auburn -- so I like going the other way for value.
• Line movement, combined with public sentiment seems to indicate that "syndicates" are on Oregon.

World Series

I like the Giants. I ALSO like when different factors, angles, and trends agree. Multiple factors that line up in one direction yield better results.

I think that the press and many sports fans think that Texas will take home the World Series after they beat the Yankees by an average of 6 runs in their 4 wins (beating the Yankees 4 games to 2). These short series, especially in baseball, are not very meaningful. We think there is value on the SF Giants.

We like that the Who Will Win analysis matches up with this selection.

http://whowillwinthebiggame.blogspot.com/2010/10/championship-traits-that-win-world.html

March Madness: Duke

I like to find value in the sports marketplace, but sometimes I think that even the media and fan favorites will take it. I like Duke -- and think (hope) that Butler's Cinderella story comes to an end. Coach K has not brought home a Final Four Championship in a few years -- but I think he does it here.

The sports psychology factors below, include factors such as coaching and experience. This can be key.

Here is analysis from Who Will Win...

http://whowillwinthebiggame.blogspot.com/2010/04/march-madness-final-four.html

Super Bowl - Saints

I like the Saints for several reasons. I think that the Saints are actually better than the Colts. The Colts captured a lot of media -- and public -- attention with their run at a perfect season. Although they a few "meaningless" games at the end of the season, many consider them "perfect."

The Saints have put up some monster numbers and are a truly "live dog."

Public sentiment is clearly on the veteran Colts, but there seems to be value on the Saints. In addition, I found this sports psychology angle to be interesting:

http://www.sportsinsights.com/bookreviews/book_granat_and_chin_2010.aspx