Mosley vs. Pac Man (Pacquiao)

There is a lot of sports activity today. Not only is there a full slate of baseball games, there are NHL & NBA playoff games. In addition, there is the Kentucky Derby & a big-name boxing match-up between Shane Mosley and Manny Pacquiao.

It is interesting that in horses and boxing, there are often mismatches -- and as a result -- there are often longshots. Historically, there is a long-shot-favorite bias whereby the public overvalues long-shots and undervalues the favorites.

Please check out this SportsInsights article on this bias.

In one of our articles, we highlighted the long-standing longshot-favorite bias that exists in horse racing and boxing betting. The sports betting research that SportsInsights.com performs for major US sports has uncovered biases that relate to betting against the public — and generally finds value on underdogs.

Interestingly, the opposite is generally true for major horse racing and boxing events. In these events, there is a LOT of public interest in these “one-time events.” Boxing and horses often offer long-shot “lottery ticket” opportunities that offer attractive odds to the casual bettor. This means that long-shots are OVER-valued — and that “sharps” and professionals are often on the undervalued favorites.

http://blog.sportsinsights.com/2011/05/horses-boxing-favorite-bias/

I will lean towards Pac-Man (in a decision) for this reason.

Some additional coverage and links:

• A great Covers article: (Public on Mosley)

The consensus among ringside experts is that "Sugar" Shane Mosley needs a miraculous performance to upset Manny Pacquiao Saturday night at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas. But that isn't stopping public bettors from backing the underdog in the fight.

“Almost all of the money has been on Mosley,” Las Vegas Hilton sportsbook manager Jay Kornegay said. “All the small money accumulates on Mosley before the fight. Then, on the day of the fight, you will see a lot of money bet on Pacquiao.”

Read more here: http://www.covers.com/articles/articles.aspx?theArt=232965

• More on the longshot-favorite bias: http://whowillwinthebiggame.blogspot.com/2011/05/quant-fact-long-shot-favorite-bias.html

• Shane Mosley http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shane_Mosley

• Pac Man http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manny_Pacquiao

- jc & cb

Kentucky Derby

Here is some great coverage on the Kentucky Derby by Covers.com:

Over the years, some handicapping trends have held up very well in the Kentucky Derby. Here’s a look at some Kentucky Derby trends that hold water and others that should be taken with a grain of salt:

Fewer than six career races

It is pretty close to the golden rule, when it comes to handicapping the Kentucky Derby, that a horse had to have run at least six times in his career in order to be a legitimate contender for the roses.

Since 1933, only four winners have run five or fewer times and still had the base of experience and stamina needed to win this race. Three of those horses had run five times and Big Brown was a total fluke with just three career races.

This year, there is a solid chance that we will add another horse to the list because there are a number of inexperienced horses. We have to start with likely favorite Dialed In. He has run just four times. Depending on your view, that’s a serious warning sign, especially if he goes off at a low price.

Midnight Interlude and Animal Kingdom join him with just four races and Uncle Mo, Nehro and Shackleford have just five under their belts. There is a decent chance that the top three betting choices will all be light on experience.

http://www.covers.com/articles/articles.aspx?theArt=232768

Some of my favorites:

• Archarcharch
• Mucho Macho Man