Friday Free Pick - Pick Six? 2/18/11

Our winning pick on Thursday brings our blog's recent streak to 5 wins in a row -- so we are going for a "Pick Six" -- 6 in a row, that is.   I have been on a roll lately, but remember to "bet with your head" and use good money management.  I won't make any claims that I will win the equivalent of 60% of the time (equivalent because of the impact of moneyline bets).

However, the methods I use should help sports handicappers overcome the vig.  Please also visit one of my more popular posts on sports betting tips.

Today's sports action is particularly light -- even for a Friday at this time of the year -- because of the NBA's All-Star break.  In today's sports betting action, I like:  Dartmouth +11.5 over Columbia.  Public sentiment is on the big favorite -- so there looks to be some value on Dartmouth.  I also always like getting some "meaty" action in terms of points, and the +11.5 (hopefully more later) gives us that "value."

We'll go with Dartmouth as our "pick six" play.  Thanks for reading!

Sports Betting Tips

Some sports bettors make a casual bet "here and there" -- just for the fun of things -- and that's fine.  However, if you want to help your bankroll (which could be a fun thing!), below are some betting tips.  Over time, I will blog about additional thoughts on betting tips and value in the sports betting world.

• Selectivity: the "vig" is already difficult to beat.  Limit your bets so that you are not climbing upstream all of the time by paying -110 on excess games.  (Don't be mislead: most of us cannot achieve a 60% winning percentage -- and that -110 is a drag on results.)  
• Use good money management.  Here's a blog post on money management. 
• If possible, check various sportsbooks to get the best combination of point spread and (moneyline) odds.  (A low vig sportsbook and/or sports exchange can offer good "pricing.")
• Avoid the hottest and best teams -- and avoid the worst teams.  I use ATS records (especially Covers.com stats) to study this type of info.  Research has shown these are bad bets.
• Try to put "value" on your side by tending to "fade the public."  I like SportsInsights for this type of info.
• In addition, I try to grab additional value by focusing on big games, nationally televised games, and games where the media is harping on one side of the story.    
• I also like "line value" (where the line moves in the direction where you are receiving more points or better odds).  
• I like "decent points" in my plays, which often look like "ugly plays" -- because teams sometimes come through with "back door covers."  These wins ATS can help improve your winning percentage. 
• Syndicates and other groups with organized resources may use additional techniques to add value to their plays.  This is beyond the scope for many smaller bettors and handicappers, but the resulting line moves and other impacts -- could be useful:

1. Injuries and other breaking news: this will probably impact the betting lines -- but faster than most bettors can exploit.  Sometimes, the lines over-react (tip: perhaps fade).
2. Pricing models and other software: used to set a price. 

Monday Free Pick - NHL 2/7/11

After a busy Super Bowl weekend, it's back to business.  Some people I know think of me as a "grinder."  I believe that I have an edge, and I stick to strict money management, which may be boring to some, but works for me.

I don't like much today, so my free pick of the day is my old standby: the Over in the NHL Big Salami.  I already locked in Over 34.5 in the 6 NHL games.

Money Management & Sports Betting

As we get set for Super Bowl Sunday, the topic of money management came up with some friends.

Some observations:

• If you don't have an edge, the best money management will be to minimize your bets and unit size.  No matter how you manage your money, your bankroll will dwindle.
• That being said, if you have a slight edge, note that a typical account will still have swings of +/- 20 units or more.  This is just due to the volatility of the betting world.  
• Thus if you have $1000 in your account, the "noise" and randomness of even betting as little as $50 a unit will cause your account to scrape the bottom from time to time.  
• I often think of my bankroll in two pieces: what I have in active accounts (my "active bankroll"), and what I have "in reserve" to back up the "sports investing" activity in the near-term ("near-term bankroll").
• To withstand the impact of volatility and randomness, I use about 5% of the "active bankroll" or about 3% of the "near-term bankroll" as my unit size.   
• To some, this may seem small and not very exciting, but sports betting is a "double-or-nothing" investment exercise.  You either win your bet (and almost double your money) -- or lose the entire bet.  Thus, even 5 losses in a  row, at 5% per bet -- can lose 25% of your "active bankroll."  
• If you practice good money management activities, you will be able to stick to your guns in time for your approach's upswing -- and won't feel the pressure to reduce your bet size at the worst possible time.