Today's value play is on the SF Giants at home. The Phillies have been red-hot -- just like Worley -- creating value on the Giants and Sanchez. We like the "plus" money line odds on the Giants -- as the "pendulum" is bound to swing the other way. - jc & cb
Showing posts with label pendulum. Show all posts
Showing posts with label pendulum. Show all posts
Friday, August 5, 2011
Saturday, June 18, 2011
Saturday Free Pick - MLB 6/18/11
We are going for three wins in a row today. Our preferences in the NHL & NBA finals dragged us down a a bit, but we have been red-hot in baseball. We're going with an unusual pick today.
We analyzed each of today's games and didn't like the money line pricing for any of the regular games. We DO like Jon Lester and the Red Sox today. The odds are high, however, so we're taking the Red Sox minus the run line to help with the odds. The Sox are at home with Lester's 70%+ lifetime winning percentage.
Lester had 3 relatively rough outings in 4 starts a month ago, but looks to be back on track. Wolf, on the other hand, is an aging veteran who is outperforming his lifetime stats this season. We like the angles stated above, combined with the pendulum/"revert to the mean" angle in this game.
You should be able to get the Sox -1.5 runs at around +120 odds.
We analyzed each of today's games and didn't like the money line pricing for any of the regular games. We DO like Jon Lester and the Red Sox today. The odds are high, however, so we're taking the Red Sox minus the run line to help with the odds. The Sox are at home with Lester's 70%+ lifetime winning percentage.
Lester had 3 relatively rough outings in 4 starts a month ago, but looks to be back on track. Wolf, on the other hand, is an aging veteran who is outperforming his lifetime stats this season. We like the angles stated above, combined with the pendulum/"revert to the mean" angle in this game.
You should be able to get the Sox -1.5 runs at around +120 odds.
Sunday, June 12, 2011
Sunday Free Pick - NBA 6/12/11
We're going back to the well and taking Miami in Game 6 of the NBA finals. We think the pendulum has swung too far the other way. We're going with LeBron and Miami at home. Things have gone Dallas' way the past few games in Dallas -- and the betting public has driven the line down from Miami -6/-5.5 down to -4.5.
We'll keep an eye on the point spread and grab that line value at some point. We're hoping to extend our winning streak to three games in a row.
We'll keep an eye on the point spread and grab that line value at some point. We're hoping to extend our winning streak to three games in a row.
Thursday, April 28, 2011
Thursday Free Pick - NBA 4/28/11
With so many underdogs covering during this year's NBA playoffs, I like the line movement and value on Portland today. Sometimes the pendulum swings too far -- and you can obtain value going against extreme trends.
Portland faces elimination against Dallas -- and with Portland at home, and the public on Dallas -- I think Portland is a good play. The line opened with Portland favored by -4.5 -- and the sentiment has reduced the spread to -4. I am watching the line and hoping to get Portland -3.5 or better.
Portland faces elimination against Dallas -- and with Portland at home, and the public on Dallas -- I think Portland is a good play. The line opened with Portland favored by -4.5 -- and the sentiment has reduced the spread to -4. I am watching the line and hoping to get Portland -3.5 or better.
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