Some Good Info for Your NCAA Brackets

Here are results for the Round of 64 in the Big NCAA Tournament.  I am using these historical odds in combination with point spreads for my first round picks.

Starting at Seed 5 and lower, the better seed is 66% or less to win their first round game!
 
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AnsAr9S-QB_AdEdmWm9QTTRfTVhER0ZGTUlYb3F2RGc#gid=0

The National Bracket (2012 March Madness)

Here's some good March Madness info:

We love this link: the "National Bracket" which shows the cumulative entries -- so you can pick where others are not!

http://games.espn.go.com/tournament-challenge-bracket/en/nationalBracket?entryID=4725386

Some good ideas and numbers:

http://www.sportsinsights.com/images2/SportsInsights_Expert_Bracketology_Guide.pdf

Our favorite March Madness website for bracket pools:

• ESPN.com
• CBSsports.com

NCAA Bracket Info

Here is some bracket information I have been looking at when completing my brackets. Have fun!

• This is a nice calculator from BracketScience. Some features are available for members only, but there's still some good info.
• Here are some probabilities generated by that U-Chicago pool I mentioned. The financial marketplace approach to the pool resulted in interesting and reasonable probabilities that can help differentiate your own brackets!!
• Some standouts from those probabilities:
• Florida State, a #10 seed = 55.6% to advance to next round
• Missouri, #11 = 59.8%
• Marquette #11 = 51.0%
• Old Dominion #9 = 57.8%
• Utah St #12 = 52.3%
• Michigan St #10 = 54.1%
• This NY Times article also shows some good probabilities.

Monday Free Pick - MLB Spring Training 3/14/11

I am staying with MLB Spring Training -- and going with the SF Giants.  Also -- if you haven't seen it, please check out my spring training biases, that was fairly popular yesterday.

Also -- check out this Final Four Pool.  At the least, it looks like the info could be useful in completing your brackets!  (...pricing can be used as probabilities of advancing to the next round...)

Final Four Pool

Check out this NCAA Men's Basketball bracket pool; it is run round-by-round -- and looks interesting (and there are prizes).  One of my friends is running it with a college financial markets class.

Point values for correct picks are determined by the actions of market participants.

March Madness Brackets Coming Soon

We like this site, Bracket Science, that specializes in March Madness bracket pools and does some good analytical work. We'll have info on college basketball and value -- but we also love this site's work and research. Here's an excerpt from their recent newsletter:

Duke and Syracuse proved they could be beaten—and the remaining three undefeated teams showed vulnerabilities of their own. So who has the inside track to win the 2011 tourney? Find out at www.bracketscience.com.

CONTENDER vs. PRETENDER: There are certain attributes that separate overachieving high seeds from underachievers. Efficiency numbers are important. So is protecting the ball. It also helps to have an All-American. Find out how to pick one and two seed overperformers. Read “Pretender/Contender.”

ANATOMY OF AN UPSET: Two-thirds of tourney games involve underdogs taking on favorites at least four seed positions better than them. Just one in five of these mismatches are won by the Cinderella. There are three basic guidelines that can help you pick 33 percent of upsets right and advanced round-by-round rules that can boost your upset-spotting success rate above 50 percent.

We added this site to our favorite links.