WSJ, SportsInsights & Value

I like how the Wall Street Journal has been picking up on applying contrarian methods to the sports betting world.  They just came out with this article using SportsInsights' research on March Madness:

Fabrizio examined the final betting lines of every Division I college basketball game played in March or April since 2004 and monitored the bets taken by six popular online bookmakers. He determined when one team is favored by at least 16 points and receives more than 60% of the bets, the underdog covers the spread 56.5% of the time. The results are strikingly similar to those of another study Fabrizio performed in December, which examined the benefits of the contrarian investing technique to betting on NFL games. 

Please click here for the link to the article.

These contrarian sports investing methods often result in "ugly plays" (large underdogs!) -- but the data shows that there is value in applying contrarian methods not only to stocks -- but also to sports betting.  The typical sports bettor feels "bad" (and stupid) when the the ugly play gets blown out (which happens regularly) -- but more often than not, the point spread is able to help the "ugly pick" squeak by with a win ATS (against the spread).

Sports Betting Tips

Some sports bettors make a casual bet "here and there" -- just for the fun of things -- and that's fine.  However, if you want to help your bankroll (which could be a fun thing!), below are some betting tips.  Over time, I will blog about additional thoughts on betting tips and value in the sports betting world.

• Selectivity: the "vig" is already difficult to beat.  Limit your bets so that you are not climbing upstream all of the time by paying -110 on excess games.  (Don't be mislead: most of us cannot achieve a 60% winning percentage -- and that -110 is a drag on results.)  
• Use good money management.  Here's a blog post on money management. 
• If possible, check various sportsbooks to get the best combination of point spread and (moneyline) odds.  (A low vig sportsbook and/or sports exchange can offer good "pricing.")
• Avoid the hottest and best teams -- and avoid the worst teams.  I use ATS records (especially Covers.com stats) to study this type of info.  Research has shown these are bad bets.
• Try to put "value" on your side by tending to "fade the public."  I like SportsInsights for this type of info.
• In addition, I try to grab additional value by focusing on big games, nationally televised games, and games where the media is harping on one side of the story.    
• I also like "line value" (where the line moves in the direction where you are receiving more points or better odds).  
• I like "decent points" in my plays, which often look like "ugly plays" -- because teams sometimes come through with "back door covers."  These wins ATS can help improve your winning percentage. 
• Syndicates and other groups with organized resources may use additional techniques to add value to their plays.  This is beyond the scope for many smaller bettors and handicappers, but the resulting line moves and other impacts -- could be useful:

1. Injuries and other breaking news: this will probably impact the betting lines -- but faster than most bettors can exploit.  Sometimes, the lines over-react (tip: perhaps fade).
2. Pricing models and other software: used to set a price. 

Wed, 1/26/11, Free Pick - NCAAB

After last night's win ATS (against the spread) on a "visiting dog getting double-digit points" -- we're going "back to the well" in college hoops again. This time, we'll take George Washington getting +13 points vs. Xavier.

Tuesday, 1/25/11 Free Pick - NCAA Hoops

In today's sports betting action, I like a play in college basketball. The Seton Hall-Syracuse game is a big game, with visiting Seton hall getting double-digit points. Public sentiment is on Syracuse, so there is contrarian value on the visitors plus the big points. Based on research I have done, it appears that currently: visitors are undervalued - compared to home teams in NCAA Hoops, at least against the spread.

NBA Tonight - Philly

Was scanning the NBA numbers -- and I like Philly tonight. As you may know, I try to look at the sports gambling world from a few angles.

• I like this visiting dog getting just under +10 points. Currently, the 76ers are generally available at +9
• At Covers.com, Philly remains an undervalued team, with one of the best records against-the-spread.
• Orlando is having a good year, but the point spread really evens things out.
• At another of my favorite sites, SportsInsights, this match-up is seeing heavy betting action and Philly is potentially a contrarian value with public sentiment on the "better team."

Visit regularly for more free picks.

Sunday - a look at the NFL & NBA

Yesterday's Steelers game was a classic -- and that kind of "randomness" that decides games is what makes sports fun -- but is also a reason why sports betting and gambling is not a sure thing. The game could have gone either way -- especially against the spread. We just try to put the numbers and probabilities on our side.

In today's NFL playoff games, we already mentioned that we like the Patriots. In the other NFL game, we think it is interesting how the media and public suddenly likes Seattle's "Cinderella story." We lean to Chicago - and love them at home - but we don't like giving up the -10 points. Value is all about public perception, and we think Seattle has captured the attention of sports fans with their win over the Saints last week. In addition, power rankings (mentioned previously) favor the Bears.

It's a light day in the NBA, but the LA Clipper-LA Laker game caught our eye. The Lakers are having a great season -- but we often study stats at Covers (especially "against the spread" stats, to get a handle on over/undervaluation) -- and the Lakers have been a public team (overvalued) all season.

Reflections on 2010

As we get ready for a new year, it's always nice to reflect on the year that is coming to an end.

I thought this article was interesting. It made me think -- and try to analyze where we can find the most value in the sports betting world. I also checked out some stats at Covers.com, another great sports betting website. In particular, I looked at ATS records for teams during 2010 to see if there was any pattern that might emerge.

Here are some observations and notes as we get set for 2011.

• Public sentiment and public perceptions can lead to value. We can bet on teams that the public undervalues and bet against teams that are overvalued.
• The media can give clues to which teams might not be valued correctly.
• In addition, sites like Covers and SportsInsights have good information that can be used to objectively determine value.
• A look at ATS results and actual records shows that the best teams ATS are typically good to very good teams.
• Of course, teams that surprised (both to the upside and downside) could yield profits.
• The very best teams are often over-valued (unless they have surprised sports fans).
• Really poor teams can yield value, but they cannot under-perform horribly; they have to cover (or win, if moneyline) sometimes.
• The article shows how the playoff champions are often NOT the team with the best record. This means that there could be value in the playoffs -- since sporting events have some randomness to them!

Happy New Year!

Sports Betting Websites I like

As we start a new year, and as we get this blog started, I thought I would share a few of my favorite websites.

• Covers.com is a great website. Lots of content and articles, some of the best sports betting forums on the internet -- and great stats. In particular, this is the first site I go to when I want to study value and performance against the spread.
• Sportsinsights.com is also a site I use a lot. Their betting percentages and research are great tools. I use their betting percentages to get a feel for "public perception" and "public sentiment." These are some of the best tools out there -- and after years studying the sports gambling world -- might be one of the best edges available. The edge is not much -- but it is "real."

Good luck.