Thursday, October 25, 2012

2012 World Series

We like the "Who Will Win" analysis as a different angle for championships...

The analysis points to Detroit, based on pitching leadership and fielding consistency.  Read more here:
http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/677712-carlton-chin/1209051-the-2012-world-series-analysis-of-sports-psychology-factors


In addition, this year's World Series matches up one team that swept their semi-final series (Detroit) versus a team that went to 7 games.  Since MLB went to divisions in 1969 (and the MLB playoffs included at least a semi-final round) -- we were curious how teams fared based on how well they performed in the semi-final round.

As we might expect in these short series, there was no definitive answer.

  • Teams that swept the semi-final round (in 3 or 4 games) and played against a team that needed more games to get to the World Series (2 or more games longer) -- are just 4-6 in the World Series.
  • On the other hand, teams that took 2 or fewer games to get to the World Series than their opponents (in the semis) are 8-6 in the World Series (this includes the 4-6 sweepers).  
  • That is, teams that had an easier semi-final generally performed better in the World Series -- unless they swept the semis!


Wednesday, June 13, 2012

2012 NBA Finals

I like Miami in the NBA finals.  With Oklahoma City up one game to none (winning at home), there is also additional value on a futures/series play.

In Game 1, Miami led for much of the game, until OKC's big run at the end of the 3rd quarter.  Although OKC is favored, we like the value on Miami.  Miami's defense, experience in last year's finals -- to me -- makes them a better overall team.  We will see -- but I am on Miami!

Here's the "Who Will Win" analysis that I like:

http://offthedribble.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/12/keeping-score-reading-statistics-like-tea-leaves/





























   

Thursday, April 26, 2012

Final Four: ALSO in College Football?!

Check this out: the BCS looks like it will FINALLY get a playoff going for the College Football National Championship.

Leaders of the Bowl Championship Series will present to their constituents the option of a four-team college football playoff beginning in 2015, BCS executive director Bill Hancock said Thursday afternoon.
Associated Press
Bowl Championship Series executive director Bill Hancock
Hancock said commissioners from the BCS conferences will present to conference constituents two to seven options for a four-team playoff. Those options include holding semifinals at campus sites, as well as neutral-site games. A championship game will be held at a neutral site, either an existing bowl or a site that bids in advance to host the game.
Hancock acknowledged that if a four-team playoff is approved by the 11 participating conferences and the BCS’s presidential oversight committee, it will be a “seismic event.” Major-college football never has had a playoff. BCS leaders have ruled out 16- and eight-team playoffs.



Read more here:
http://blogs.wsj.com/dailyfix/2012/04/26/college-football-bcs-bosses-want-four-team-playoff/?mod=WSJBlog