March Madness Brackets Coming Soon

We like this site, Bracket Science, that specializes in March Madness bracket pools and does some good analytical work. We'll have info on college basketball and value -- but we also love this site's work and research. Here's an excerpt from their recent newsletter:

Duke and Syracuse proved they could be beaten—and the remaining three undefeated teams showed vulnerabilities of their own. So who has the inside track to win the 2011 tourney? Find out at www.bracketscience.com.

CONTENDER vs. PRETENDER: There are certain attributes that separate overachieving high seeds from underachievers. Efficiency numbers are important. So is protecting the ball. It also helps to have an All-American. Find out how to pick one and two seed overperformers. Read “Pretender/Contender.”

ANATOMY OF AN UPSET: Two-thirds of tourney games involve underdogs taking on favorites at least four seed positions better than them. Just one in five of these mismatches are won by the Cinderella. There are three basic guidelines that can help you pick 33 percent of upsets right and advanced round-by-round rules that can boost your upset-spotting success rate above 50 percent.

We added this site to our favorite links.

CBS & "60 Minutes" on Sports Betting & Billy Walters

"Sports gambling" and "sports betting" - have always had a "dark side" associated to it. Over recent years, however, there have been press mentions about:

• "sports investing" (contrarian value) in the sports betting arena -- as well as
• a few professional gamblers and/or syndicates that win over the long term.

Many sports fans place occasional small and casual bets on sporting events. As in financial trading and many other professions, the vast majority of people end up losing money -- but a small minority have been successful. Our approaches (contrarian methods combined from multiple analytical factors) have proven to add value to handicapping methods. In the link below, CBS and 60 Minutes have a segment on Billy Walters, one of the most successful sports bettors ever. The full link is below the excerpt:

(CBS) When it comes to gambling, everybody knows the house has the advantage. But there are some high rollers who consistently win, and it's hard to find anyone better at winning than Billy Walters.

He bets on football and basketball, is worth hundreds of millions of dollars, and has been so successful that many Las Vegas bookmakers are afraid to even take his bets.

Walters has been almost as elusive as Howard Hughes, avoiding publicity, reluctant to reveal his secrets.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2011/01/13/60minutes/main7243443.shtml?tag=currentVideoInfo;segmentTitle

Sunday - a look at the NFL & NBA

Yesterday's Steelers game was a classic -- and that kind of "randomness" that decides games is what makes sports fun -- but is also a reason why sports betting and gambling is not a sure thing. The game could have gone either way -- especially against the spread. We just try to put the numbers and probabilities on our side.

In today's NFL playoff games, we already mentioned that we like the Patriots. In the other NFL game, we think it is interesting how the media and public suddenly likes Seattle's "Cinderella story." We lean to Chicago - and love them at home - but we don't like giving up the -10 points. Value is all about public perception, and we think Seattle has captured the attention of sports fans with their win over the Saints last week. In addition, power rankings (mentioned previously) favor the Bears.

It's a light day in the NBA, but the LA Clipper-LA Laker game caught our eye. The Lakers are having a great season -- but we often study stats at Covers (especially "against the spread" stats, to get a handle on over/undervaluation) -- and the Lakers have been a public team (overvalued) all season.