NFL this weekend 1/15/11

I like New England and Pittsburgh this weekend in the NFL... I think that New England is an absolute "monster" this year and that the Jets earned some respect by beating an aging Indy last week. This "respect" potentially evened out the "bubble of overvaluation" surrounding Tom Brady's Patriots.

Pittsburgh also looks like a good play, based on public sentiment, and line value.

Below are some interesting links that you may find useful at SportsInsights.

SportsInsights NFL Marketwatch column

http://sportsinsights.com/sports-betting-articles/nfl/market-watch/2010/week19-betting-trends.aspx

I like this set of power ratings they worked up...

http://sportsinsights.com/sports-betting-articles/nfl/playoffs/2011.aspx

NFL Playoffs: Jets & GB

I like the Jets & Green Bay this weekend. I lean to Seattle and Baltimore -- but those are just leans. New Orleans scares me because they may have just had championship "laziness" and KC could have snuck in under the radar (and public perception leads to value).

I like these power ratings by SportsInsights:

http://sportsinsights.com/sports-betting-articles/nfl/playoffs/2011.aspx

In particular, there seems to be good value on the Jets because they have a higher power ranking AND are underdogs in this match-up.

Green Bay has a monster and under-rated defense. They will be tested by Philly's O (Vick!) and Philly's NFL's-best running game -- but defense is defense.

2011 BCS Championship

I like Oregon for a few reasons. Attached are some links that I like...

• Based on some book's research on sports psychology. Their results have been good. http://whowillwinthebiggame.blogspot.com/2011/01/who-will-win-college-football.html
• Also, they got a press mention:
• http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/6162234/who_will_win_the_bcs_championship_1.html?cat=14
• The betting public generally favors Auburn -- so I like going the other way for value.
• Line movement, combined with public sentiment seems to indicate that "syndicates" are on Oregon.